Tag: federal reserve

A Visual Guide to Bond Market Dynamics


This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist


The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

A Visual Guide to Bond Market Dynamics

Bond markets have been rattled given recent events in the banking industry.

The good news is that the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are taking action to restore confidence and take the appropriate measures to help provide stability in the market.

With this in mind, the above infographic from New York Life Investments looks at the factors that impact bonds, how different types of bonds have historically performed across market environments, and the current bond market volatility in a broader context.

Bond Market Returns

Bonds had a historic year in 2022, posting one of the worst returns ever recorded.

As interest rates rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, it pushed bond prices lower due to their inverse relationship. In a rare year, bonds dropped 13%.

YearBloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond
Index Total Return
2022-13.0%
2021-1.5%
20208.7%
20197.5%
20180.0%
20173.5%
20162.7%
20150.6%
20146.0%
2013-2.0%
20124.2%
20117.8%
20106.5%
20095.9%
20085.2%
20077.0%
20064.3%
20052.4%
20044.3%
20034.1%
200210.3%
20018.4%
20018.4%
200011.6%
1999-0.8%
19988.7%
19979.7%
19963.6%
199518.5%
1994-2.9%
19939.8%
19927.4%
199116.0%
19909.0%
198914.5%
19887.9%
19872.8%
(Read more...)

Visualizing 40 Years of U.S. Interest Rates


This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist


The following content is sponsored by Citizens.

Visualizing 40 Years of U.S. Interest Rates

In just six months, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates by 300 basis points in one of the fastest rate increases in decades. By the end of 2023, rates could rise to 4.50-4.75%.

Yet in spite of these increases, rates still fall below historical averages.

In Part 1 of our Seizing Capital Opportunities series from Citizens, we show interest rate trends over modern history, and the implications of increasingly hawkish monetary policy in today’s environment.

U.S. Interest Rates: Reversing the Trend

For decades, U.S. interest rates have fallen due to structural factors including slower GDP and employment growth.

But with COVID-19, trillions in fiscal stimulus, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, demand dynamics have dramatically shifted. U.S. inflation hit 40-year highs, met with a strong labor market. As a result, the Federal Reserve has made aggressive moves to raise rates to prevent the economy from overheating.

Below, we show average annual 10-year Treasury yields, a proxy for U.S. interest rates, and their annual percentage change since 1980. Data is as of October 5, 2022.

YearAverage U.S.
Interest Rate
Annual Percentage
Change
2022*2.7%156%
20211.5%63%
20200.9%-52%
20192.1%-29%
20182.9%12%
20172.3%-2%
20161.8%8%
20152.1%5%
20142.5%-29%
20132.4% (Read more...)