Fork in the Road: 2 Scenarios For the EV Rollout
Global forecasts for electric vehicle rollouts vary, with countries around the world pledging to speed up the transition to 100% zero-emission cars and vans by 2035-2040.
The shift towards electric vehicles is often hailed as a crucial step in combating climate change. However, the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has not been as smooth as anticipated.
According to projections by sponsor KGP Auto, BEVs will only make up 38% of the automotive market by 2040, far short of the 65% needed to achieve net-zero emissions. Let’s explore these projections further by breaking down two opposing scenarios up until 2040.
One Goal, Two Ways To Get There
Currently, many factors are limiting the forecasted rollout of BEVs, the most prominent being resource constraints.
With high demand and limited availability of critical transition metals, are there alternatives to reach net-zero targets?
The Balanced Scenario, laid out by KGP Auto, factors in current roadblocks impacting EV targets and presents an alternative road forward.
| Dominant Scenario | Balanced Scenario |
|---|---|
| In this forecasted scenario, to meet 1.5 degrees Celsius warming targets, internal combustion engines (ICEs) will be banned in most markets by 2035, and BEV share will reach 65% of global sales by 2040. | Alternatives will help bridge the gap (Read more...) |