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Charting the Rise of America’s Debt Ceiling

by Dorothy Neufeld
This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist

Charting the Rise in America's Debt Ceiling

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Charting the Rise of America’s Debt Ceiling

Every few years the debt ceiling standoff puts the credit of the U.S. at risk.

In January, the $31.4 trillion debt limit—the amount of debt the U.S. government can hold—was reached. That means U.S. cash reserves could be exhausted by June 1 according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Should Republicans and Democrats fail to act, the U.S. could default on its debt, causing harmful effects across the financial system.

The above graphic shows the sharp rise in the debt ceiling in recent years, pulling data from various sources including the World Bank, U.S. Department of Treasury, and Congressional Research Service.

Familiar Territory

Raising the debt ceiling is nothing new. Since 1960, it’s been raised 78 times.

In the 2023 version of the debate, Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is asking for cuts in government spending. However, President Joe Biden argues that the debt ceiling should be increased without any strings attached. Adding to this, the sharp uptick in interest rates have been a clear reminder that rising (Read more...)

A Visual Guide to Bond Market Dynamics

by Dorothy Neufeld
This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist

Published • Updated •
The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

A Visual Guide to Bond Market Dynamics

Bond markets have been rattled given recent events in the banking industry.

The good news is that the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are taking action to restore confidence and take the appropriate measures to help provide stability in the market.

With this in mind, the above infographic from New York Life Investments looks at the factors that impact bonds, how different types of bonds have historically performed across market environments, and the current bond market volatility in a broader context.

Bond Market Returns

Bonds had a historic year in 2022, posting one of the worst returns ever recorded.

As interest rates rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, it pushed bond prices lower due to their inverse relationship. In a rare year, bonds dropped 13%.

YearBloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond
Index Total Return
2022-13.0%
2021-1.5%
20208.7%
20197.5%
20180.0%
20173.5%
20162.7%
20150.6%
20146.0%
2013-2.0%
20124.2%
20117.8%
20106.5%
20095.9%
20085.2%
20077.0%
20064.3%
20052.4%
20044.3%
20034.1%
200210.3%
20018.4%
20018.4%
200011.6%
1999-0.8%
19988.7%
19979.7%
19963.6%
199518.5%
1994-2.9%
19939.8%
19927.4%
199116.0%
19909.0%
198914.5%
19887.9%
19872.8%
(Read more...)

Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

by Dorothy Neufeld
This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist

Infographic showing the lead-up to the collapse of SVB

Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Just days ago, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was still viewed as a highly-respected player in the tech space, counting thousands of U.S. venture capital-backed startups as its customers.

But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run.

So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.

Road to a Bank Run

SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.

Summary of the SVB balance sheet at the end of 2022

As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list.

Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet.

The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued.

Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. (Read more...)

Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

by Dorothy Neufeld
This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist

Infographic showing the lead-up to the collapse of SVB

Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Just days ago, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was still viewed as a highly-respected player in the tech space, counting thousands of U.S. venture capital-backed startups as its customers.

But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run.

So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.

Road to a Bank Run

SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.

Summary of the SVB balance sheet at the end of 2022

As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list.

Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet.

The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued.

Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. (Read more...)

Ranked: The 100 Biggest Public Companies in the World

by Dorothy Neufeld
This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist

View the full-resolution version of this infographic.

Data visualization showing the biggest Companies in the World 2022 (preview image)

The Biggest Companies in the World in 2022

View the high-resolution of the infographic by clicking here.

This year has been shaped by uncomfortable macroeconomic headwinds.

Trillions of dollars were erased in public company market capitalizations, investor confidence waned, and cost pressures squeezed consumer pocketbooks.

Taken together, many of the world’s largest companies experienced sharp declines in market share. Still, a few companies in key sectors had positive growth over the year.

As 2022 comes to a close, the above infographic shows the biggest companies in the world, using data from Companiesmarketcap.com.

The World’s Largest Public Companies in 2022

Today, Apple stands as the world’s most valuable company, towering at a $2.3 trillion valuation.

Despite the tech downturn of 2022—driven by rising interest rates and slower sales—Apple maintained its top spot. This was largely thanks to record revenues and healthy consumer demand for iPhones, which drive about half of its total revenue.

Following Apple is Microsoft. Unlike Apple, Microsoft has faced slower earnings over the year due to lower demand for personal computers and the weighing impact of a strong U.S. dollar. Overall, about 50% of the company’s sales take place overseas.

As we show below, there are now only four companies left in the trillion dollar market cap club.

2022 Rank
CompanyMarket CapitalizationSectorLocation
1Apple$2.3TTechnology🇺🇸 U.S.
2Microsoft$1.9TTechnology🇺🇸 U.S.
3Saudi Aramco$1.8TEnergy🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
4Alphabet$1.2TTechnology🇺🇸 U.S.
5 (Read more...)

Visualizing (and Understanding) an Inverted Yield Curve

by Dorothy Neufeld
This post is by Dorothy Neufeld from Visual Capitalist

Visualizing (and Understanding) an Inverted Yield Curve

For a few months in 2019, the yield curve inverted and warned of a potential recession.

Towards the end of 2021, it happened again. And throughout 2022, the inverted yield curve has looked more and more extreme. So what does an inverted yield curve look like, and what does it signal about an economy?

The above visualization from James Eagle shows the yield curve from November 2021-2022 using eurodollar futures yields—which serve as an indicator for the direction of the yield curve.

What Denotes an Inverted Yield Curve?

Generally speaking, the yield curve is a line chart that plots interest rates for bonds that have equal credit quality, but different maturity dates.

In normal economic conditions, investors are rewarded with higher interest rates for holding bonds over longer time periods, resulting in an upward sloping yield curve. This is because these longer returns factor in the risk of inflation or default over time.

So when interest rates on long-term bonds fall lower than those of short-term bonds, it results in an inverted yield curve.

The worrying trend is that an inverted yield curve in key government securities such as U.S. Treasuries can often foreshadow a recession. For every recession since 1960, an inverted yield curve took place roughly a year before, with just one exception in the mid-1960s.

This is because the yield curve has steep implications for financial markets. If the market predicts economic turbulence, and that interest rates (Read more...)