Category: Data Update

Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!



Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! To start the year,  I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Those measures took a beating in 2020, as COVID decimated the earnings of companies in many sectors and regions of the world, and while 2021 was a return to some degree of normalcy, there is still damage that has to be worked through. This post will be one of a series, where I will put different aspects of financial data under the microscope, to get a sense of how companies are adapting (or not) to a changing world.

The Moneyball Question

When I first started posting data on my website for public consumption, it was designed to encourage corporate financial analysts and investors alike to use more data in their decision making. In making that pitch, I drew on one of my favorite movies, Moneyball, which told the story of Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt), the general manager of the Oakland As, revolutionized baseball by using data as an antidote to the gut feeling and intuition of old-time baseball scouts.


In the years since Beane tried it with baseball, Moneyball has decisively won the battle for sporting executives' minds, as sport after sport has adopted its adage of trusting (Read more...)

Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!



Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. That metric, though, has been signaling that stocks are over valued for most of the last decade, a ten-year period when stocks delivered blockbuster returns. The failures of the signal have been variously attributed to low interest rates, accounting mis-measurement of earnings (especially at tech companies), and by some, to animal spirits.  In this post, I offer an alternative, albeit a more complicated, metric that I believe offers not only a more comprehensive measure of pricing, but also operates as a barometer of the ups and downs in the market.

The Price of Risk

The price of risk is what investors demand as a premium, an extra return over and above what they can make on a guaranteed investment (risk free), to invest in a risky asset. Note that this price is set by demand and supply and will reflect everything that investors collectively believe, hope for, and fear.

Does the price of risk have to be positive? The answer depends on whether human beings are risk averse or not. If they are, the price of risk will be reflected in a (Read more...)

Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!



Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. That metric, though, has been signaling that stocks are over valued for most of the last decade, a ten-year period when stocks delivered blockbuster returns. The failures of the signal have been variously attributed to low interest rates, accounting mis-measurement of earnings (especially at tech companies), and by some, to animal spirits.  In this post, I offer an alternative, albeit a more complicated, metric that I believe offers not only a more comprehensive measure of pricing, but also operates as a barometer of the ups and downs in the market.

The Price of Risk

The price of risk is what investors demand as a premium, an extra return over and above what they can make on a guaranteed investment (risk free), to invest in a risky asset. Note that this price is set by demand and supply and will reflect everything that investors collectively believe, hope for, and fear.

Does the price of risk have to be positive? The answer depends on whether human beings are risk averse or not. If they are, the price of risk will be reflected in a (Read more...)