Author: Howard Lindzon

Momentum Monday – If You Have Nothing Good To Say…


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As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

I hope everyone had a wonderful 4th of July weekend.

The only good news about the market is I have nothing good to say about the markets.

What has me worried this week is the rising spread in high yield credit which we have seen before previous market meltdowns…

The question this summer is how far will the technology crash spread.

As always, Ivanhoff and I tour the market to discuss in detail what we are seeing in the form of momentum. You can watch/listen on YouTube here and subscribe on YouTube if you want an alert each time I do a video. I have also embedded it below:

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

If we judge by the most constructive charts currently, we can say that the market is pricing a potential recession at some point this year. Look at what is setting up near the 52-week highs list: consumer staples like General Mills (GIS), Dollar General (DG), Post Holdings (POST), Campbel Soup (CPB); auto parts chain Autozone (AZO); online education Stride (LRN); health insurance Humana (HUM); big pharma Merk (MRK) and Eli Lilly (LLY), etc. These are not the type of stocks that (Read more...)

My Life in Coronado and San Diego


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Happy Sunday…

My summer has started off with a high intensity mix of work, fitness and food. I am really enjoying it.

We have owned a home in Coronado, San Diego since 2010. We moved here in 2009 post the financial crisis in 2008.

In 2018 we moved back to Phoenix as Max and Rachel attended University of Arizona and so we spend summers only here on Coronado.

As a creature of habit, I rarely do much exploring.

The last few summers I have broken that habit and am continually surprised by the quality of neighborhoods and food and cycling terrain San Diego has to offer.

This summer, everyone in Coronado and Imperial beach are talking about the sewage problem in the ocean coming by way of Tijuana. It is finally reaching the stage where local politicians and Washington have a semblance of a plan. I was introduced to our Coronado mayor recently and plan to get more involved in some local support this summer and beyond.

The city/town of Coronado is in a perpetual boom.

The Hotel Del has has spent hundreds of millions in growth and upgrades and because of the military, the island is always safe, clean and in upgrade mode.

The Coronado bridge is a beautiful piece of engineering/art that is a gateway to the city of San Diego. You can live on Coronado and avoid heading to San Diego for weeks on end, but I prefer to cross the bridge at least once per (Read more...)

Valuation Compression…The Opportunity


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Hello July.

Good riddance to the first half of 2022.

It was the worst first half of the year for the S&P since 1970.

Our supreme court celebrated the first half of the year by taking us back pre 1970 with Roe vs. Wade.

I guess the good news is we all can shoot our robo advisors with AR-15’s and claim mental anguish to avoid punishment.

My gut is a lot more valuation compression lies ahead for us.

With high inflation and rising interest rates come valuation compression. Sure rates and inflation can reverse, but people and therefore markets, have recency bias so we will not get to the heights of 2021 even if a financial miracle were to happen.

There is not much I can do as valuations compress in the public markets.

In the seed stage markets I am looking for teams and ideas that can get started in this era of valuation compression with all this in mind.

I said this on Twitter yesterday which started a lot of conversations:

Smaller teams, engineering light, unique wedges and plans to get to revenue/even profitability fast (capital efficiency) and a valuation that allows for optionality along the way.

As valuations compress it is most important that founders and investors honor the power of momentum by holding it close. That means lower valuations early so that there is more optionality as the company builds momentum and more optionality if momentum is slow to take hold. I believe it is (Read more...)

Matt Ober of Social Leverage on Embracing Data, Information, and Technology to Make Smarter Decisions


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Burden Of Proof Is On Bulls – Chart of The Day.


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Good morning.

I’m headed out to ride with a pal of mine Mike Dean who chose a top 100 US Bike Climb in the country here in San Diego – Palomar Mountain.

Since I continue to get so many asks from people in my feeds about the ‘bear market’ and when is the right time to buy stocks, I will continue to share some charts and data about how bad this market really is.

Today, have a look at this data in chart form from Willie Delwiche:

What Could Go Right and A ‘Perfect’ Indicator to Get Long?


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Gooooood morning from beautiful Coronado.

I am getting into a bit of a morning routine which is nice.

I was reading this morning that China is opening back up. Even Disney China might be opening.

What a different world it is from early 2020.

As I have been covering in my Momentum Monday’s here on the blog for a while, with stocks well below the 200 day moving averages, bad things tend to happen to stocks.

Lately it has been the energy stocks pulled into the bear market.

The tech stocks that led this great long run – the semiconductors – look the weakest technically right now:

Momentum Monday – How Long Will Relief Rally Last?


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As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

Good morning.

As always, Ivanhoff and I tour the market looking at momentum. You can watch/listen to this weeks show right here. I have embedded it below…

Ivanhoff shares this thoughts below:

The market is better at predicting the news than the news is at predicting the market. Financial markets typically look 6-9 months ahead and try to anticipate what could happen. They are currently betting that the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy is going to send the economy into recession and the Fed will have to stop hiking sooner than previously expected. As result inflation expectations are tapering and we saw a major mean reversion last week. The worst-hit groups year-to-date outperformed significantly last week – ARKK went up 18%, the cloud ETF – WCLD, went up 15%, biotech XBI went up 14%. In the meantime, the best performing sector year-to-date – oil & gas (XOP), lost 6%, tested its 200-day moving average and it is now down almost 30% from its annual highs.

The odds are that this is just another bear market bounce that will eventually be faded again. It is really hard to know how long it can last. The (Read more...)

Some Sunday Reads and Listens – Laughs Edition


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Good morning…

‘That’s My Time’ with Dave Lettermen is excellent. Dave’s opening monologues bring back great memories of Dave being smart and silly. He takes shots at Netflix stock and even Will Smith. I forget about his age. He also talks to comics which is what he should be doing. Short and sweet. Netflix has a hit series with this and I look forward to the next batch of them.

This Gary Vider joke showed up in my Instagram feed and made me laugh. The setting is what really caught me off guard for the punchline. I would not have expected this type of joke.

My friend Richard sent me this old Johnny Carson clip and it brought back memories of me probably seeing it live when I was a kid.

Talking about Carson, here is Gary Shandling’s very first Tonight Show appearance. I remembered watching it with dad and both of us laugh out loud.

Have a few laughs and a great Sunday

Comedy and NFT’s – Laugh Lounge is Happening


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Happy Saturday.

My internal clock is all messed up after going San Diego to New York late Wednesday and back right away Friday.

Onwards…

I have hinted at working on a comedy venture and Thursday night in New York we had 100 friends join us at The Stand Comedy Club in NYC for a launch event.

Yes, I did do a few minutes alone on the stage explaining the motivation and idea and telling a few stories (they went over pretty well). Here is a couple of tweets:

I have been working with my friend Claude Shires (founder of Laugh Lounge) and his team at Laugh Lounge as well as my Social Leverage partner Matt on how to build a marketplace and also deeper community for people that love comedy.

I believe I have a good idea about how to use ‘Web 3’ as part of the company building.

My friend Brian calls our idea ‘crafty’ which is perfect. I want to be crafty and we want this idea to be ‘clever’. We also want the company to be lean and profitable early.

We are focused on building something that comedy fans will want to use and comedians will appreciate.

I believe we are in an era of company building when lot’s of capital and brute force will not define the big winners.

JC picked up on something interesting about the mood of the comics…the complete disdain for NFT’s and the stock market. The comedians can’t define NFT’s (nor (Read more...)

Abe Finkelstein of Vintage Investment Partners on Israel, Tech Investing, and Living Through Multiple Market Cycles


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