A Few More Thoughts on Florida

This post is by Unknown from West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)

    Josh Marshall had a recent post entitled “A Few Thoughts on Florida” that closed with this:
 Then we get to the question of the potential impact on the November election in Florida. I’d guess it could be fairly significant. We’ve all kind of concluded that Florida is now a red state. For Democrats that’s understandable because it’s been the scene of so many Democratic heartbreaks. But Trump won it by 1.2% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2020. The fact that Trump slightly improved his margin is definitely significant. But these are still very close margins. Winning Florida, I’ll still believe it when I see it. But with the abortion and weed amendments on the ballot I think the Biden campaign can at least make Trump fight and invest real resources in what for him is an absolutely must win state.
With some trepidation, I think Marshall (who is the best political commentator we have) is missing some important points, starting with how much of a powder keg we’re talking about. Marshall says “there’s at least an argument that abortion should poll better” in Florida than in Kansas or Ohio, but we can go much further. Based on pre-Dobbs polling, Florida was way more pro-choice than either of these states coming in just one spot below California. State     Mostly Legal     Mostly Illegal     Net support     
Florida      56%                     38%              (Read more…)