Undecideds, "Undecideds," and Shy Voters


This post is by Unknown from West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)



Nate Cohn addressed this question last week. Longtime readers we be shocked to learn I didn’t find his arguments all that convincing.
One simple explanation is that undecided voters ultimately backed Ms. Haley, the former South Carolina governor.

This is plausible. Mr. Trump is a well-known candidate — even a de facto incumbent. If you’re a Republican who at this point doesn’t know if you support Mr. Trump, you’re probably just not especially inclined toward the former president. It’s easy to see how you might end up supporting his challenger.
Yes, people who are not inclined to support Trump are less likely to support Trump, but in effectively a two person race, this still begs the question of why, if respondents are being honest and these people really are going into the polls not knowing who they’ll vote for, they almost all make the same decision. Even if it’s off-balance, how often can that coin keep coming up heads?
If I were picking plausible options instead of just criticizing the NYT, one of them might involve an ironic twist on the Bradley effect, where some saner Republicans are embarrassed to admit their doubts about Trump over the phone but are uncomfortable (Read more…)