The weather is finally starting to cool in Phoenix.
I am going to head out on a long ride this morning.
I have a busy week as I head to Vegas tomorrow for Money 2020 and the Cayman Islands for a conference.
I have been down the AI rabbit hole of late and wrote about this last week. Most of the reading is over my head but there are some very fun and practical tools that are getting built and launched all the time.
My friend Mike Marquez and I have these hilarious technology and venture capital calls all the time (too much made up gossip to make them public) where we talk about trends and companies and products. Mike was helping me on the last call understand some of the amazing AI tools he was seeing that I should try. Because I have been working on a new ‘web 3’ business they really struck a chord.
I do believe that while web 2 was all about speed, scale and the more money the better (driven by low cost of capital), the next phase of the web will be more inclusive and niche. AI (artificial intelligence) and the blockchain will allow smaller teams with less engineers build profitable businesses fast.
I have NO IDEA what the prices of the S&P or Nasdaq or Dow will be next year or ten years from now, but I do know that technology keeps pressing forward in Jurassic Park ways.
I have just a couple reads and listens this week but they are really great.
First up is Brad Gerstner on the All In Podcast. Brad always has some great takes on the markets both public and private. He and all the ‘crossover’ funds have been mauled by this bear market, but that does not take away from the research he does, his process and the data he shares. As the bear market rages on, we can see the damage everyday in the public markets, but the private markets are harder to measure. There is obviously less transparency.
Brad does a great job of explaining the numbers that matter in Venture Capital – DPI. DPI is Distributions to Paid in Capital multiple. This is how much money a VC fund has sent back to LPs divided by the amount of money the LP has paid into the fund.
Here is a chart from the podcast on the return trends in venture capital:
We have worked so hard at Social Leverage to drive DPI and have crushed the top quartile averages with our first two funds.
Next up is Stanley Druckenmiller talking about the markets which is always great.
A couple of reads you might enjoy…
Ban Thompson deep dive on Microsoft coming full circle. I don’t use Microsoft products and despise the fact that Microsoft is now eating the enterprise markets with an inferior set of products (my opinion), but that is the world we live in for now.
Finally, the talented Morgan Housel with a great piece titled ‘Little Rules About Big Things‘
Have a great Sunday.