That’s Italian…



It is remarkable how chill the Italians can be – I was reminded of that yet again a few weeks ago when I was over there. Amidst continued and extraordinary political turmoil and a looming national election on September 25, life simply rolls along. The recent collapse of the Draghi government and bickering among the center and left political parties appear to have created the path for the coalition of right-wing parties led by the far-right Brothers of Italy to secure this upcoming snap election. It is feared that the €200 billion in reform commitments funded by the European Union may be reversed.

And this financial support will be desperately needed as economic conditions rapidly deteriorate. According to S&P Global’s flash composite purchasing manager index, business activity in the eurozone has reached the lowest levels in 18 months. Volatility in the Italian bond market has widened spreads against German bonds to 2.3%, the highest in months, and exacerbated by an unprecedented €39 billion short bet against Italian debt – all signaling a pending financial crisis and whispers of an “Italian Contagion.” The Milano Indice di Borsa (Italian stock market) reflects recent investor anxieties as well as the dramatic downdraft at the outset of Covid (more below).

The most recent International Monetary Fund forecast is calling for a 5% contraction to the four countries most directly impacted by the restriction of Russian gas, which includes Italy. Eni, the large Italian energy company, just announced that Gazprom has reduced natural gas deliveries (Read more...)