What if Trump’s Social Security and Medicare stand was never that big a deal to begin with

This post is by Unknown from West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)

 [Note: David Weakliem recently looked at the actual data on this going back to the eighties. Check out his analysis here.]

As alluded to recently, Joseph and I have been having  an argument about political strategy. I contended that the Democrats should be focusing on three issues where the GOP had staked out especially unpopular positions: reproductive rights, the insurrection; and Social Security and Medicare. Joseph countered that, largely because of Trump’s public commitment not to cut these programs. The GOP was, in a sense inoculated against these attacks.

For the record, my co-blogger Joseph is possibly the smartest person I know. What’s more, he cited a number of other very smart people who were in general agreement including Josh Marshall who is probably our sharpest political analyst. I get very nervous when I find myself disagreeing with either, let alone both. And the Democratic establishment was clearly on board (more on that later in the post).

 I wasn’t exactly persuaded but I had enough doubts about my position that I decided back-burner the topic and focus on other things. Then I saw this:

Yes, it’s just one poll and we can’t say for certain that the fifteen point shift is not an outlier. Even if the move is real, we can’t say for sure what caused it. Still, if you see this big a jump in seniors, Social Security and Medicare are the obvious place to look.

 If data and common sense point to Republican vulnerability on the (Read more…)