The data are thin but still worth keeping an eye on



A couple of months ago, we did a post prompted by this Nate Cohn NYT piece where we talked about draconian anti-abortion bills being proposed and sometimes passed in states with neither anti-abortion majorities or trigger laws.

 Recently, though, some of the news has been coming from a different direction. [Emphasis added]

The geographic pattern evident in the results suggests that a national outcry over a court decision to overturn Roe might not carry many political consequences in the states where abortions could be immediately restricted. In some of those states, new abortion restrictions may tend to reinforce the political status quo, even as they spark outrage elsewhere in the country.

But in some states, a fight over new abortion restrictions might pose serious political risks for conservatives, perhaps especially in the seven mostly Republican-controlled states that are seen as most likely to enact new restrictions even though a majority of voters tend to support legal abortion.

Mississippi is the third most anti-abortion state in the country according to the NYT piece.

 Yes, n = 1 and this could be a bad poll or an outlier, but should these results be valid not being able to get majority support for Dobbs (Read more...)