The Three Lanes of NYC Mayoral Election Traffic

I made the mistake of trying to build a ranked-choice voting election model for the NYC Mayoral Race this weekend.

To quote Facebook, “It’s complicated.”


That being said, it’s an exercise that forces you down a bunch of rabbit holes relating to ideology, race, gender, and all sorts of other factors that, unfortunately, aren’t well polled.

I’ll give away the basics of where I got to with it and some of the biggest questions still left answered. From what I can tell, there are basically three lanes where the votes will end up and are not likely to shift between each other.

There’s the Andrew Yang lane, the “Experience” lane, and the Progressive lane.

Andrew Yang has polled everywhere from 16% to 32% in the three major polls that have come out so far. Wherever he actually is, I think two things are probably true:

1) Yang supporters appear to be ride or die—unfazed by his lack of experience, flip flops, gaffes, and seemingly bizarre stances like being against speedy busways. I mean, is the constituency for people driving across 14th Street really worth going after? They just love the idea of an outside-the-box pick promising to turn NYC into a crypto utopia.

2) At 85-90% name recognition, he has probably already topped out early. Anyone canvassing for a campaign will tell you that those that are for him are for him, and those that aren’t listing him first are having a visceral reaction to the (Read more...)