How Do You Know?

This post is by Jeff Carter from Points and Figures

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I listened to a podcast by Russ Roberts on the drive home.  (Link to come later) It was about uncertainty.  It was also about certainty.

Life sometimes has Aha moments when everything comes together and you see everything. The veil lifts.

Everyone has them.  If you live your life with uncertainty then you don’t do anything.

Sometimes  certainty happens in the moment. I had it happen several times to me in the trading pit.  Things just came together and you acted.  Others around you thought you were nuts.

The danger is you read or see things through your confirmation biases.  You need to drive yourself to uncertainty to make sure your filters are right.

Uncertainty is okay.  You have to be comfortable with it.  It’s a part of life.  If you use it right it’s a good part of life.

Uncertainty causes learning