This post is by Jeff Carter from Points and Figures
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Watching social media closely you see a lot of stuff on politics these days because of the campaign. I follow people on the left and right. I am Facebook friends with people on the left and right. I value both opinions. I am not a Trump supporter. I was a Scott Walker guy.
What do I notice right now?
The people posting the most voraciously antagonistic things about Trump aren’t going to vote for him anyway. If it wasn’t Trump, it would be any other Republican front runner. They are not going to cross party lines and vote for another candidate. Their choice is between a socialist, Bernie Sanders, and a corrupt crony capitalist, Hillary Clinton.
The establishment wing of the Republican party is in a tizzy. For that, I say “Good!” I am sick of the crony capitalism that goes on in political parties. The revolving door between office, and lobbying, writing regulations or getting fat salaries in corporate America purely because of connections is disgusting to me and a majority of America. Glenn Reynolds has proposed a tax for this revolving door behavior. This partly explains the rise of Sanders and Trump because people think they can’t be bought.
Pundits have tried to analyze the phenomena. The analysis has ranged from comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini (he isn’t), to the Kardashians (there is a lot of that). The best analysis I have seen is a series of blogposts by Scott Adams. He is the creator of Dilbert. He calls it his Trump Persuasion Series.
Trump understands how to sell. He language, the way he phrases things, the way he attacks, defends, and his entire body language are textbook. If you want to learn how to sell, become a critical observer of Trump and see what he does. I wouldn’t be insulting like he is, because few can get away with that. But, Trump intuitively knows how to appeal to the hot button emotions to get people to buy from him.
The other article that I saw that was highly interesting to me was the data on who was a Trump voter. Trump dominated the airwaves this summer. On television, Trump has took 77.57% of the airtime compared to Jeb Bush at 11.75%. Trump is a media phenom. Ted Cruz only had .35% of media time. Rubio had .80%.
If you were unemployed, didn’t have a high school education, had less than $50k in income, were black, had 3 people or more in a housing unit, you were more likely to vote for Trump.
Last night, Cruz picked up more delegates for Trump. I suspect if Rubio and Kasich would drop out, Cruz would probably win.
I have friends that are supporting Trump. They are graduate degreed people. They are sick of the establishment. Other friends are really scared of immigration, the issue Trump used to build his base. The circles I run in, it is not cool to say you support Trump. You have to keep that to yourself.
All is not lost for the Republican Party. If the establishment wing gets blown up, that is okay. I think then the party could become a more socially liberal/fiscally conservative party. But remember, being that party makes it look more Rand Paulish than Mitt Romneyish. Individual liberty over the collective. That means no money for collective either.
There are more people on the outside looking in than there are insiders. The outsiders are sick of being manipulated, and now is the time to make their voice heard. They are sick of the elites dictating to them and telling them what they should think and what they should believe. That hasn’t worked out well for them over the past 16 years, especially the last 8. Their costs of living and opportunity to make a living have evaporated. The question becomes, how many Bernie Sanders Democrats get so disgusted with Hillary that they vote for a Trump, or a Ted Cruz?